I gave another slant to what I found in the headline of the excellent report by Martin Fletcher from Tehran, "Mahmoud Ahmadinejad fites for survival as late surge gives rival hope" (Times of London,Jun11,2k9).
Mr [Mir Hossein--] Mousavi has visibly gained momentum in recent days and his exuberant supporters have flooded on to the streets of Tehran in huge numbers. The usual restrictions on dissent have been largely swept aside as the regime has loosened — or lost — its grip ahead of the election.Needless to say, refWrite and most of the Western news industries are hoping for the election of Mr Mousavi. But his election can lead to no happy life for him in office. His worst enemy will be the Revolutionary Guards, whom he will have to feel forced to restrain, I would imagine, but who -- the aforementioned Guards -- will be the main strength of the opposition, no matter what the Ayatollah says.
The election has also exposed the deep divide within Iranian society. Mr Mousavi’s candidacy has galvanised the urban middle-classes, and he also has the support of Mohammed Khatami, the popular reformist President from 1997 to 2005, and Hojatoleslam Rafsanjani, who was defeated by Mr Ahmadinejad in the presidential election of 2005.
Mr Ahmadinejad enjoys strong support among the rural poor and religiously devout, and is thought to have the backing of the Supreme Leader as well as the Revolutionary Guards and the volunteer Basij militia.
But, likewise, the Guards are a factor of both empowerment and restraint for the ambitions and manias of Ahmadi-Nejad (aka Ahmadinejad), by far the majority of officers of the Revolutionary Guards do not belong to the Shi'ite messianic stream of Islam in Iran. Again, I would imagine.